Evolution pattern of African countries' oil trade under the changing in the global oil market

Abstract

Africa's oil trade plays a vital role in the global oil market, but it is more vulnerable compared to other regions due to its resource dependency. This study examines the evolution of African countries' oil trade in the context of the changing global oil market, aiming to shed light on the characteristics of resource-dependent oil trade in these areas. By utilizing global oil trade data, an oil trade network of African countries is constructed for the period from 2000 to 2020. The findings reveal that the comparative advantages of most African countries are primarily determined by their abundant resources, with the Gulf of Guinea and North Africa exhibiting greater revealed comparative advantages. However, the over-reliance on primary product exports leaves African countries susceptible to unpredictable changes in the global oil market. Furthermore, due to their single industrial structure, the control over resource flows within the trade network is significantly low for African oil-producing nations. The oil trade of African countries has formed distinct trade communities, including the Gulf of Guinea and North America, North Africa and European countries, and Angola, Sudan, and East Asian countries. These communities exhibit relative independence and self-reinforcement, influenced by factors such as the timing of market entry, international economic trends, energy demand and transformations in consumer countries, and geopolitical risks.