Evolution of urban land and population system coupling micro–dynamics and macro-stability: Trends and paths

Abstract

Cities are constantly dynamics, but emerge the stability of urban systems as evidenced by robust urban scaling. Both properties serve as necessary perspectives for understanding the evolution of cities and the complexity of urban systems. However, the evolution trends and mechanisms behind the above relationships, particularly concerning geographic processes, remain to be explored in depth. In this study, the dynamic fluctuations within individual cities and the macro-stability of the evolution of urban systems over the past two decades are systematically demonstrated. Subsequently, associations between urban systems and individual cities are established on the basis of micro- and macro-dynamic mechanisms. The trajectory of individual cities can be divided into scaled–driven growth (SG) and urban excess growth (EG). The former is the result of scaling effects within the system, while the latter is affected by global external effects. Taking as examples urban built-up area and social productions, the evolution pathways that vary from different attributes are analyzed. The results indicate that urban built-up area is more affected by scaling effects whereas social productions is driven more by global external effects. Moreover, we examine the driving forces and mechanism of EG from the aspects of economic development level, technological and economic progress, industrial structure and regional policy through an empirical analysis. This study provides a nuanced understanding of the trends and pathways of urban land–population system from the perspective of complex urban systems and holism to deepen the understanding for general properties of cities and co-evolution for urban population size and land expansion.