Evolution of the US’ Strategic Ambiguity in the Cross-Strait Relations

Abstract

Purpose: This paper analyzes how the US policy on Taiwan is gradually evolving from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. First, I would like to analyze China's Taiwan policy in terms of the core interests of the Communist Party of China. Second, I would like to specify why the US policy on Taiwan is evolving from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. Third, in the event of the Taiwan contingency, the security threat to the Korean Peninsula is identified and policy alternatives are proposed.
 Method: This paper delves into the US policy on Taiwan with the Balance of Interest theory of Randall Schweller. A neoclassical realist suggests that national foreign policy is indirect and complex and must be reinterpreted through a parameter unit of domestic factors. According to Neo-Classic realists, the parameters that affect a country's foreign policy are such as domestic interest groups and the political leader’s ideology and identity.
 Results: The main parameters of the US policy shift towards Taiwan from the perspectives of Neo-classical Realism are as follows. First, it is Biden’s identity of value diplomacy which prioritizes democracy and human rights. Second, Xi Jinping's military threats to annex Taiwan, and the pursuit of a gray zone strategy are driving factors for the US Policy shift from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. Third, the US policy shift to Taiwan was initiated by curbing China's rise through the control of the Indo-Pacific maritime control and global supply chain.
 Conclusion: The contingency in the Taiwan Strait is closely linked to security on the Korean Peninsula due to the US’ strategic flexibility. Currently, tensions between the US and China are rising in the Indo-Pacific region as the US military support for Taiwan's self-defense. The ROK should be wary of being involved in the unintended Taiwan crisis. To build a free and prosperous Indo-Pacific, strategic communication between the US and China should be strengthened while respecting the “one China” principle.