Abstract

1. Traits are hypothesised to optimise via natural selection. The schedule of reproduction is an important adaptive trait, but its evolution is difficult to study, as measuring parameters is usually difficult. However, the sufficient amounts of demographic data enable us to estimate these parameters.2. Here, it is shown that the reproductive schedule of the ant Camponotus (Colobopsis) nipponicus is tuned to maximise the lifetime production of alates.3. A colony started its reproduction 4 years after the colony founding, at which time they were far smaller than well‐developed colonies. This contradicts the prediction of the bang‐bang strategy theory. The size distribution of colonies in the study area showed that the mortality of small colonies is much higher than that of large colonies.4. A simulation analysis suggests that the colonies that are smaller than the threshold can still achieve significant improvement in colny survival to the following year by investing all resources in colony growth instead of reproduction. A sensitivity analysis for the starting year of reproduction showed that the observed schedule maximises lifetime alate production. The demographic data suggest a stable population, which is required for optimisation through this maximisation.5. The observed reproductive schedule must be optimised, and the breakdown of the bang‐bang theory is due to higher mortalities during the incipient stage of colonies. This study demonstrates that having enough demographic data creates a useful tool for studying the evolution of life‐history characteristics.

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