Abstract
The world business cycle is passing through a phase of great significance for the world economy and the functioning of the international monetary system. The growth rates of the U.S. economy on one side and most industrial countries on the other have been converging. Until early 1978, the United States was expanding at a rate above its long-run potential, while most other countries were expanding well below their potential. According to many projections, we are entering a phase in which the rate of growth of other industrial countries will, on average, exceed that of the United States. What we are witnessing is a dissynchronized world business cycle, a condition, in other words, where national cycles are out of phase with each other. Much of the turmoil that we are observing in the world today can be traced to this dissynchronization.
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