Abstract
The objective of this study is to investigate the evolution of rainfall and flow in the Bouregreg watershed, and to identify the most vulnerable regions to climate change over a period of 36 years from 1977 to 2013. Results show significant variations between these sub-regions in term of monthly flows and monthly regimes. January and February rainfall amounts are the most affected by the reduction of rainfall since the drought started end of the 1970’s, inducing a reduction of flows at all hydrological stations mainly since 1979. The year 1996 shows very high precipitations over all sub-basins, and also separates two periods with different rainfall time series variations according to two regions over the basin: the region of the Tsalat sub-basin in the Southeast wet and mountainous area (Middle Atlas) shows a durable decrease of rainfall compared to the Ain Loudah sub-basin in the Center-West semi-arid plateau area.
Highlights
Rainfall is the most important climatic factor to both ecosystems and people
The objective of this study is to investigate the evolution of rainfall and flow in the Bouregreg watershed, and to identify the most vulnerable regions to climate change over a period of 36 years from 1977 to 2013
The objectives of this work are to identify the main factors of climate variability through the detection of similarities and differences between the responses of measurement stations, and consider the contribution of each region to the development of sustainable water management in Bouregreg watershed in the context of climate change
Summary
Rainfall is the most important climatic factor to both ecosystems and people. the detection of trends and variations in long hydroclimatological series is relevant for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Natural systems and human activities are most at risk due to lack of regular water supply during the year. This is due to the high inter-annual variability and the significant seasonality of rainfall. Hydroclimatic regime of the basin is influenced both by NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and MO (Mediterranean Oscillation) (Khomsi et al, 2016; Zamrane et al, 2016a). This has an impact on the evolution of hot episodes in Morocco’s internal areas (Khomsi et al, 2013).
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