Evolution of the hinterlands of eight Chinese ports exporting to europe under the Polar Silk Road: Three hypothetical scenarios

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In July 2017, Russia formally offered an invitation to build the Polar Silk Road (PSR) to China. Then, the White Paper of China's Arctic Policy was officially published in January 2018. It proposes the joint construction of the PSR to promote sustainable economic and social development in the Arctic region. Notably, the PSR aims to open up China's maritime trade route through the Arctic to Northwest Europe and influence the container hinterland pattern of China's coastal ports. This study assumes three scenarios to analyse and predict the evolution of the hinterlands of Chinese ports exporting to Europe under the PSR. The discrete selection model based on random utility is constructed to divide the dominant hinterland, probabilistic hinterland and major competitive hinterland of ports. The research shows that the cost and time, container throughput and risk have negative effects on a shipper's choice of port, whereas the sailing frequency has a positive effect. In general, the hinterlands of northern ports continue to expand under the PSR. Meanwhile, the hinterlands of the middle ports decrease first and then increase, and those of the southern ports contract. Overall, the northern ports are the most vulnerable to the changes of PSR attributes.