Evolution of the East Asian winter land temperature trends during 1961–2018: role of internal variability and external forcing

Abstract

Detecting the contributions of internal variability and external forcing to the evolution of surface air temperature (SAT) trend at regional scales is a challenge. Based on the observations and large-ensemble simulations of climate models, we estimate the contribution of the internal and forced components to the evolution of East Asian winter land SAT (EAWT) during 1961–2018. Although the external forcing induced EAWT trends show a slow increase, both the total and internally generated EAWT trends exhibit a decrease with the extension of the time period, suggesting a critical role of internal variability in the evolution of the EAWT trends. The internal variability contributes to about 70% of total EAWT trends during 1961–1995. With the extension of the time period, the contribution of internal variability decreases, whereas the contribution of external forcing gradually grows to dominate the EAWT trends. Based on the dynamical adjustment method, we identify that the internal dynamics and forced thermodynamics account for a majority of internal and forced EAWT variations, respectively. We further identify that the multidecadal fluctuation of internal component of autumn Arctic sea ice is a critical precursor of the internal variability, especially the internal dynamically induced EAWT variations, through triggering a meridional stationary Rossby wave response in the following boreal winter. Our findings provide an insight into the understanding of the present and future climate change over East Asia.