Evolution of the 12 July 2012 CME from the Sun to the Earth: Data‐constrained three‐dimensional MHD simulations

Abstract

AbstractThe dynamic process of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere provides us the key information for evaluating CMEs' geoeffectiveness and improving the accurate prediction of CME‐induced shock arrival time at the Earth. We present a data‐constrained three‐dimensional (3‐D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the evolution of the CME in a realistic ambient solar wind for the 12–16 July 2012 event by using the 3‐D corona interplanetary total variation diminishing (COIN‐TVD) MHD code. A detailed comparison of the kinematic evolution of the CME between the observations and the simulation is carried out, including the usage of the time elongation maps from the perspectives of both STEREO A and STEREO B. In this case study, we find that our 3‐D COIN‐TVD MHD model, with the magnetized plasma blob as the driver, is able to reproduce relatively well the real 3‐D nature of the CME in morphology and their evolution from the Sun to the Earth. The simulation also provides a relatively satisfactory comparison with the in situ plasma data from the Wind spacecraft.