Evolution of Swarna estuary and its impact on braided islands and estuarine banks, Southwest coast of India

Abstract

Qualitative and quantitative evolution of the Swarna estuary, during the past 38 years (1967–2005), has been analysed by integrating the results of field surveys, satellite images, hydrodynamic modelling and topographic data in GIS context. Significant changes in erosion/accretion patterns of the estuarine banks, inlet configuration and adjacent spits, and origin, morphology, orientation and areal extent of fifteen braided islands have been estimated. Hydrodynamics of the region is studied through modelling, and probable flow pattern that is responsible for morphological changes is discussed. The simulated flow patterns indicate that current speeds are of the order of 10–20 cm/s inside the estuary and of the order of 40 cm/s at the mouth. The Right bank (Rb) of the estuary is subject to net erosion and the Left bank (Lb) is subject to net accretion. On an average, 20–30% of the area of all braided islands would be flooded, if the water level rises by 0.7 to 1.0 m. Islands of this estuary are morphologically very dynamic (migrating towards north, northeast and southwest directions) and subject to net accretion, whereas only one island (i.e., the Padu) has lost its major portion of landmass. A conceptual Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation model has been generated and evaluated possible flooding on the estuarine shoals and braided islands, due to heavy rainfall and/or sealevel rise. The model reveals that the possibility of flooding will be higher for those islands which are located close to the Rb than those close to the Lb.