Abstract
This paper considers the problem of forecasting coastline position in response to a fluctuating wave climate. Statistical moments are introduced as a method for describing shoreline evolution and variability. Equations are derived and solved for the statistical moments of shoreline position. These equations describe analytically the time-dependent ensemble averaged solution, and its dependence on wave climate without the need for computationally intensive Monte-Carlo simulations. The average is understood to be taken over the ensemble of possible wave sequences. An example application, based on a time series of nearshore synthetic wave conditions, is used to illustrate how the technique might be used in practice to account for both short- and long-term variability in wave climate.
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