Evolution of Risk Measures of COVID-19 from 2020 to 2022 Versus in 2023 in a General Medicine Office in Toledo (Spain)

Abstract

Background: The evolution of risk measures for COVID-19 infection from 2020 to 2023 is not clearly known. Objective: To know the evolution of risk measures of cases of COVID-19 from March 15, 2020 to October 1, 2023 in a general medicine consultation in Toledo, Spain. Methodology: Comparison of the COVID-19 incidence rate (IR), relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) and in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and 2023 years versus covid-19 in 2023 (group with very broad hybrid immunity), based on data from previous longitudinal studies, all of them carried out in the same population of patients treated in a general medicine office in Toledo, Spain. Results: 712 COVID-19 cases from March 15, 2020 to October 31, 2022 (3 years at risk) and 76 covid-19 cases from October 2022 to October 2023 (1 year at risk) were included, for a population at risk of 2,000 people. In 2023 vs. 2020-2022, the following statistically significant differences were found: a lower IR, a protective RR, and a negative AR for the entire at-risk population (IR= 36% x 3 Years; 12% on average for 1 year versus IR= 4% x 1 year; a RR of 0.33 [p= .037056], and an AR= -8); a lower IR in < 65 years [13% average x 1 year vs. 3%; p= .009149; RR= 0.23; RA= -10], and a lower IR in men [IR= 12% average for one year versus 4%; RR of 0.33 [p= .037056]; RA= -8. There was a lower IR in women, in cases with moderate-severe severity, and in socio-health workers, all with RRs that indicated protection factors, and negative ARs for the 2023 group vs. 2020-2022, but without statistical significance. However, the presence of chronic diseases meant a higher IR, a weak risk, and positive RA indicates that the incidence is greater for covid-19 in 2023 vs. in 2020-2022. Conclusion: In general practice setting in Toledo, Spain, in 2023 the population at risk with greater hybrid immunity is better prepared in 2023 vs. 2020-22 to avoid cases of COVID-19, but people with chronic diseases pose a greater risk in 2023.