Evolution of Informal Employment from a Gender Perspective based on LSTM

Abstract

This study provides an in-depth examination of gender differences in informal employment and its time evolution in Brazil, uses an LSTM model to quantitatively predict gender differences in informal employment and its evolution in Brazil, and explores the deeper reasons that lead to gender differences in informal employment based on labor market segmentation theory and gender role theory. The predictive analysis shows that Brazilian male and female informal employment will show a slight downward trend from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2026, and that male informal employment is generally higher than that of females throughout the time series. In addition, market segmentation theory reveals that the structural segmentation of the informal employment market as a peripheral component of lower wages and social security affects the sexes differently, while gender role theory further expands on socio-cultural expectations of men's and women's behaviors and occupational choices, highlighting the reinforcement of gender differences by these structural barriers. Ultimately, the study makes policy recommendations to promote gender equality and improve the conditions of informal employment in support of the sustainable development goals.