Evolution of Fossil Energy International Trade Pattern Based on Complex Network

Abstract

Energy is basis for national economic development and power products, and its imports and exports play a primary role for economic cooperation between countries. The energy international trade network is formed through the energy imports and exports among countries. From the characteristics of the network we can know the changes in energy trade patterns. According to the international energy trade data which include crude oil, coal and natural gas data published by The United Nations Statistics Division from 1996 to 2012, with the state as the node and the energy flows of trade for the side, this article constructed directed energy international trade complex network with out-weighted edges. This article calculated such complex network properties as node degree, network structure entropy, average clustering coefficient, and average nearest neighbor degree of the energy international trade complex network. Based on these characteristics, this article analyzed the degree distribution, heterogeneity, clustering, and vertex intensity correlation of the energy international trade complex network. We find that countries increased tightness and strengthened interdependence when they carry out the international energy trade. Transportation costs and customs tax, etc. will not have much impact on the import and export of fossil fuels. It will be more frequently trading with each other among countries’ partner who have smaller population or lower economic strength. Small countries tend to make energy trade relations with regional hubs in local area. Global trading countries have a lot of partners around the world. If energy war, crisis or other issues occur in these countries, it is likely to spread to other countries, so that the global fossil energy trade will be affected.