Evolution of a pathogen population in host mixtures: simple race–complex race competition

Abstract

The evolution of the genetic structure of a pathogen population was studied in a varietal mixture with an epidemic simulator based on the model EPIMUL. The pathogen population was composed of simple races able to develop on only one component of the mixture and a complex race which developed on all mixture components. The effects on the simple race–complex race competition of a cost of virulence, of density dependence and of differential adaptation were studied. The selection for simple or complex races in the pathogen population did not depend on initial race frequencies. For a given multiplication rate, complex race frequency increased faster when the spore dispersal gradient was shallow, when distribution of initial disease was generalized, when amount of initial disease was reduced and when the number of mixture components was increased. This was attributed to a better efficacy of the mixture in controlling simple races, resulting in a higher relative fitness of the complex race. For measured values of density dependence or differential adaptation effects, the complex race was at a higher frequency after a mean number of pathogen cycles between 2.5 and 5. The effect of the cost of virulence was stronger and, in certain situations, could result in selection for simple races. In the conditions of our simulations and with the effects tested, stabilization of the pathogen population in host mixtures was unlikely to occur. However, more information is needed concerning the rate at which complex races could evolve and how quickly mixture resistance could be eroded.