Evolution Mechanism of Off-site Construction Ecosystem Based on the LotkaäóñVolterra Model: A Case Study

Abstract

Off-site construction (OSC) is an alternative method to conventional construction for solving problems of high energy consumption, high pollution, and poor efficiency. OSC is a reform trend for the global construction industry. The emergence of OSC can influence the production relations in traditional construction industry chain, thereby changing the roles of stakeholders in such new construction sector. Given that most developing countries at present are still in the initial stage of adopting OSC, their construction industry is far from forming healthy and symbiotic ecosystem and highly efficient industry chain. Therefore, the scientific and rapid development of OSC becomes restricted. This study analyzes the mechanism of OSC ecosystem, reduces the vague understanding of OSC by stakeholders, and provides a reference for the strategy planning of stakeholders. From the perspective of bionics, this study aims to (1) establish an OSC ecosystem based on the theory of ecology and delimit the role of stakeholders in the OSC ecosystem, and (2) establish a LotkaäóñVolterra model for the OSC evolution. The OSC development in Beijing is used as an example. Data are collected and models are verified to discuss the state, trend, and turning point of the OSC evolution. The findings of this study can help stakeholders in comprehensively understanding the inherent historical development of OSC and provide a reference for the government decision making.