Evolution game simulation study on Asia–Europe grain trade cooperation network

Abstract

There has unavoidably been a problem for international grain cooperation in the Asia–Europe region as a result of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Analysis of the impact of Russian–Ukrainian conflict on the evolution of grain trade cooperation, identifying key influencing factors and formulating corresponding measures are of practical value for safeguarding grain security in the Asia–Europe region. In this paper, a grain trade network is constructed according to grain trade data from the Asian–European grain trade cooperation countries. A grain trade network game (GTNG) model of grain trade cooperation is established in order to investigate the elements that influence trade cooperation. The reciprocal preference is introduced. Through simulation experiments, the effects of cooperation costs, neighboring countries’ incentives, and punitive pressures, the degree of goodwill perception, the types of game, and the proportion of initial cooperators on trade cooperation are examined. This study may give useful policy recommendations for promoting Asia–Europe grain trade cooperation under the influence of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict.