Abstract
It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration—climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.
Highlights
With the economic development and population increase, the global shortage of water resources is grim [1] and water pollution is exacerbated [2]; surface freshwater pollution has become a major public hazard [3]
Significant increase presented in the downstream plain area and in the upper reaches, while in the RCP8.5, the areas with large precipitation increases were located in the source of the river, and the upper and middle reaches
The load of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the Luanhe River Basin (LRB) was remarkably high from June to September but lower in winter
Summary
With the economic development and population increase, the global shortage of water resources is grim [1] and water pollution is exacerbated [2]; surface freshwater pollution has become a major public hazard [3]. 40% of the rivers in the world have been polluted to varying degrees, and this statistic shows an upward trend [4]. Most basins in China have been polluted to different degrees, and the water environment quality has been deteriorating day by day [5,6]. The water pollution presents an increasing trend with extension from tributaries to mainstream, diffusion from region to basin, penetration from surface to underground, and spreading from urban to rural areas [5,7,8]. Public Health 2018, 15, 1724; doi:10.3390/ijerph15081724 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph
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