Abstract
The Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), located in the northeastern part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, has a fragile ecological environment and is sensitive to global climate change. With the progress of societal and economic development, the tourism industry in the QLB has also developed rapidly, which is bound to result in great changes in landscape patterns. In this study, we first analyzed the change characteristics of landscape patterns in the QLB from 1990 to 2018, and we then used the Markov model and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model, combined with natural, social, and ecological factors, to predict the changes in the number and spatial distribution of landscape patterns in the period between 2026 and 2034. The results of the study show that desert areas have been greatly reduced and transformed into grasslands. The grassland area expanded from 49.22% in 1990 to 59.45% in 2018, corresponding to an increase of 10.23%. The direct cause of this result is the combined effects of natural and man-made factors, with the latter playing a leading role. As such, government decision-making is crucial. Lastly, we simulated the landscape patterns in the period from 2018 to 2034. The results show that in the next 16 years, the proportion of various landscapes will change little, and the spatial distribution will be stable. This research provides a reference for the formulation of ecological environment management and protection policies in the QLB.
Highlights
The study of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and its process characteristics is emerging as a major focus of global change research [1,2,3] and is an important factor leading to changes in ecosystem types and landscape patterns [4]
The Kappa coefficient of 0.97 indicates that the accuracy can satisfy the requirements of the following research and that incorporating the natural, socio-economic, and ecological factors that cause land use changes into the future land use simulation (FLUS) model is a valuable method to predict the landscape pattern of the Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB) in 2018
This study presented the long-term (1990 to 2034) spatial–temporal characteristics of landscape patterns of the QLB using the Markov and FLUS models
Summary
The study of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and its process characteristics is emerging as a major focus of global change research [1,2,3] and is an important factor leading to changes in ecosystem types and landscape patterns [4]. LULC is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between human activities and the natural environment [5] and the most direct signal that characterizes the impact of human activities on the Earth’s surface [6]. LULC changes leading to alterations in the ecological environment have a significant impact on ecosystems and biodiversity [8]. Information on the changes of LULC over time is essential for social needs, which covers all aspects of life, such as urban planning, environmental research, natural resource management, and sustainable development [9,10]. Historical maps of LULC enable detection of landscape changes and help to assess drivers and potential future trajectories [11]
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