Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land Use and Carbon Storage in Jiangxi Province

Abstract

In recent years, escalating global warming and frequent extreme weather events have caused carbon emission reduction to become a pressing issue on a global scale. Land use change significantly impacts ecosystem carbon storage and is a crucial factor to consider. This study aimed to examine the evolutions in land use and their impact on carbon storage in Jiangxi Province, China. Using the coupled PLUS-InVEST model, we analyzed the spatial patterns alterations of both land use and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and set four scenarios for 2040. Our findings indicated the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of cropland, forest, grassland, and unused land declined, whereas the area of water and built-up land increased, with changes mainly occurring in 2010–2020. (2) From 2000 to 2020, due to the land use change, carbon storage in Jiangxi Province demonstrated a decreasing trend, with a total reduction of 2882.99 × 104 t. (3) By 2040, under the dual protection scenario for cropland and ecology, the expansion of built-up land will be most restricted among the four scenarios, and the largest projected carbon storage was foreseen. This suggests that carbon loss can be minimized by focusing on cropland and ecological conservation, especially forests. Our research findings can facilitate policy decisions to balance economic development and environmental protection in Jiangxi Province in the future.