Evolution and forecast of flare activity in the current solar cycle 23 (medium and short-term prediction)

Abstract

Abstract The prediction of the current solar cycle characteristics is a very interesting and important task for the solar-terrestrial physics. An effective ‘method of similar cycles’ for the prediction of the current 23rd cycle history and characteristics is presented. Furthermore a method for utilizing solar observational data to predict geoeffective solar flare events, that is, a large solar flare and solar filament ejection, is presented. The process of new magnetic flux emergence, its evolution and its interaction with already existing magnetic flux is sufficiently determined to allow us to predict the period of flare energy release (PFER). All large solar flares are always accompanied by a series of weaker events. They form together with the PFER confined within a time interval of 55 ± 20 hours, when the bulk of the middle and large solar flares occur.