Evolution and Effects of the Social–Ecological System over 600 Years in Guizhou Province, China

Abstract

Understanding the regime shifts of Social–Ecological Systems (SES) and their local effects and driving factors over a long period of time is significant for future sustainability. We provide a perspective on the processes unfolding over time in order to identify the regime shifts of an SES based on changes in the relationships between the SES components. In addition, we investigate their driving factors and local effects. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated by analyzing the evolution of the SES in Guizhou Province, China, over the past 600 years. Six evolutionary phases are identified: the slow expansion of cultivation, the rapid expansion of cultivation, the continuous expansion of cultivation, the slower expansion of cultivation, the transformation of ecological protection driven by returning farmland to forest, and green development driven by urbanization. Our study establishes the empirical relationship between the state (phase) of the SES and its driving factors and effects. This study on the evolution, driving factors, and effects of the SES in Guizhou Province, China, provides an important reference for long-term regional planning and policy making.