Evolution and container traffic prediction of Yangtze River Delta multi-port system (2001-2017)

Abstract

This contribution investigates the latest concentration tendency of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) multi-port system with concentration-ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman-Index and shift-share-analysis. Results show that Zhejiang is the major winner; Shanghai is losing its oligopoly since 2012; Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu are reaching tripartite equilibrium. Then, ARIMA, linear regression and GM (1, 1) are used to forecast container throughput of Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and YRD. By mean absolute percent error (MAPE), all models have good or reasonable performance, ARIMA performs best with MAPE of 2.37%, 2.41% and 6.54% when time series seem linear, however does not has excellent performance (MAPE is 14.26%) when non-linear. Finally, we use the indirect and direct method to forecast; MAPE decreases to 3.85% using ARIMA, which supports the out-performance of indirect forecast. The combination of concentration index analysis and forecasting methods has allowed to gain insight in the evolution and prospects of YRD container multi-port system.