Evolution analysis of water consumption and economic growth based on Decomposition-Decoupling Two-stage Method: A case study of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

Abstract

• A Decomposition-Decoupling Two-stage (DDTS) approach was developed. • The DDTS method was applied to Xinjiang for evolution analysis of water consumption. • Multiple differences among periods, districts, factors and industries were examined. • Changes in economic income increase Xinjiang's water consumption significantly. • The decoupling state has generally been maintained at Weak and Strong decoupling. In this study, a Decomposition-Decoupling Two-stage (DDTS) approach is developed for evolution analysis of water consumption (WC) and economic growth (EG). The DDTS method can not only quantify driving effects of water use intensity (WUI), industrial structure (IS), economic income (EI) and population scale (PS) to WC, but also estimate the decoupling state (DS) between WC and EG as well as further identify its determinants. Then, a case study is conducted in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, and multiple differences among periods, districts, factors and industries are examined. Results disclose that: a) average contribution rates of EI, WUI, IS and PS factors to WC are 103.2%, -78.5%, -25.8% and 9.4%; b) the effect intensity of WUI and IS factors is obviously different among industries and districts, the ranking of the above two effects among industries is primary, secondary and tertiary; c) both LMDI and RLI models can be well applied to explore driving effects of WC’ determinants while the LMDI model presents more reasonable results; d) the DS has generally been maintained at an ideal level, WUI and IS factors advance the decoupling progress while EI and PS opposite. Findings can help effectively alleviate the contradiction and support the sustainable development between water resources and economic society.