Evidências do efeito Moran na sincronia populacional: uma demonstração em microcosmo experimental

Abstract

Three main causes to population synchrony are proposed: exogenous factors, dispersal and inter-specific interactions. This paper had as main goal to test the influence of the exogenous factors in the synchrony in spatially isolated (i.e., no dispersal) populations of Sitophilus zeamais (Mots.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), in microcosms with different environmental conditions (humidity, temperature and light intensity). Twelve populations of 20 individuals each, were randomly assigned between two treatment conditions: with or without light. Population size and environmental factors (temperature and relative humidity) were weekly assessed for seven months. Temporal trend in populations increase was eliminated adjusting autoregressive models. Population synchrony, detected by means of Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients, was higher within than between treatments, although the populations kept without lamp were more synchronized than populations with lamp. Besides demonstrating the influence of environment on population fluctuations, these results suggest that metabolism and intra-specific interactions are important factors in population dynamic. Organisms exposed to unsuitable environmental conditions may have abnormal metabolic rates, which negatively influences the population grow. Thus, small populations are more likely to suffer from demographic stochasticity, decreasing the probability of the synchrony among populations. On the other hand, in more suitable environments, individuals are expected to have normal metabolic functions, and so, to achieve higher rates of population grow. In this case, the demographic stochasticity has smaller influence, leading populations without lamp to fluctuate synchronously.