Evidential Markov decision-making model based on belief entropy to predict interference effects

Abstract

Some cognitive and decision making experiments have demonstrated the classical decision theory may be violated. Recently, the interference effects of quantum theory have attracted a strong interest in applying some fields outside physics. It can be also used to explain the paradox in decision models. Existing some experiments and studies attribute the main reason for the existence of interference effects to uncertain information in decision process. Dempster-Shafer evidence theory extends the framework of discernment to power sets so it can describe unknown and imprecise information. This paper proposes evidential Markov decision-making model based on belief entropy to quantitatively predict and determine the value of interference effects. In new model, the frame of discernment is extended by introducing hesitant or unknown states which could be hidden by participants. Moreover, new model assumes there is no input of any information at initial states so it has the most chaotic states and is determined according to the maximum belief entropy. Finally, this paper discusses the effectiveness of new model by comparing with other methods as studying the interference effects of decision process.