Evidential Decision Theory and Medical Newcomb Problems

Abstract

Huw Price ([1991]) has offered evidential decision theorists a defence against the charge that they make unintuitive recommendations for cases like Newcomb's Problem. He says that when conditional probabilities are assessed from the agent's point of view, evidential decision theory makes the same recommendation as intuition. I argue that calculating the probabilities in Price's way leads to no recommendation. It condemns the agent to perpetual oscillation between different options. 1. Price's Argument2. Instability3. Objections4. Conclusion