Evidence of future increases in the impact of conventional electric facilities on rural communities

Abstract

By comparing current with proposed siting patterns for electric energy facilities, we have found that socioeconomic impact from development of electrical energy will be greater in the future than in the past. The distribution of energy facilities by fuel type, labor intensity, size, and location is matched to a classification scheme that estimates the ability of counties to assimilate employment and population growth. The study shows that: new electric capacity will shift from oil and gas to coal and nuclear fuels; coal and nuclear plants require more labor per megawatt than oil and gas plants; coal and nuclear plants are larger than gas or oil plants; new coal and nuclear plants will be larger than existing ones; among regions, greater shares of energy production will be assumed by those regions less able to assimilate employment and population growth; and within regions, greater shares of energy production will be assumed by counties less able to assimilate employment and population growth. The results of this analysis indicate that electrical energy development will have disproportionately severe impacts on the class of counties with extra low assimilative capacity. These impacts will be due almost exclusively to coal and nuclear facilities, but the impact of coal electric facilities on population growth will be greater than that of nuclear plants. Since the Three-Mile Islandnuclear accident is likely to cause either more rural siting of nuclear facilities or more dependence on coal facilities, or both, it is asserted that as a result of this accident, the socioeconomic impact of electrical energy development may increase at an even greater rate than indicated by the results of this study.