Evidence of earthquake seasonality in the Azores Triple Junction

Abstract

This work presents evidence of seasonal and inter-annual variations of the earthquake occurrence rate in the Azores Triple Junction, on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Annual cycles in microearthquakes are relatively common in intraplate continental regions affected by large hydrological loads, but this is the first time that earthquake seasonality is recognized near mid-ocean ridges. First, we benchmark the methodology by matching the published results of earthquake seasonality in the intraplate New Madrid Seismic Zone (USA). Next, we analyze the Azores earthquake catalogue, from 2008 to 2018, separately for oceanic and island regions. The results demonstrate that the seasonal modulation of the seismicity rate is only observed in the ocean, especially in the vicinity of the triple junction, with more earthquakes occurring during the summer months from May to August. Monte Carlo simulations show that the probability of observing such seasonality by chance is less than 1% for the magnitude band from 3.3 to 4.5, well above the detection threshold and magnitude of completeness of the seismic catalogue. The methodology includes a Jack-Knife approach, which shows that the oceanic seasonality is not the consequence of abnormal or extreme events. Although we speculate about possible earthquake triggering processes, it remains a challenge to definitely establish the mechanism responsible for the observed earthquake seasonal modulation in the Azores.