Evidence of a Transition to Lower Fertility in Kenya

Abstract

Data from the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey provide evidence that the countrys population growth rate historically among the highest in the world has begun to slow. The total fertility rate in 1989 was 6.7 livebirths/woman down from 8.1 in the mid-1970s; most of this decline appears to have taken place in the past few years. Contraceptive prevalence has increased sharply with 27% of married women using a method up from 14% in 1984 and 6% during 1977-78. Periodic abstinence remains the most widely used method (7.5%) followed by the pill (5.2%) and female sterilization (4.7%). The survey suggests that the fertility decline is likely to continue. The average ideal family size in 1989 was 4.4 children down from 5.8 in 1984. 1/2 of the currently Kenyan women say they want no more children. In addition more than 1/2 of the recent births were either mistimed or unwanted. More than 1/3 of currently married women ages 15-49 are in need of family planning 22% for spacing and 14% for birth timing. (authors)