Abstract
The duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is uncertain. Delineating immune memory typically requires longitudinal serological studies that track antibody prevalence in the same cohort for an extended time. However, this information is needed in faster timescales. Notably, the dynamics of an epidemic where recovered patients become immune for any period should differ significantly from those of one where the recovered promptly become susceptible. Here, we exploit this difference to provide a reliable protocol that can estimate immunity early in an epidemic. We verify this protocol with synthetic data, discuss its limitations, and then apply it to evaluate human immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in mortality data series from New York City. Our results indicate that New York’s mortality figures are incompatible with immunity lasting anything below 105 or above 211 days (90% CI.), and set an example on how to assess immune memory in emerging pandemics before serological studies can be deployed.
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