Abstract
ObjectivesTemporal trends in comparative meta-analyses of interventions are well-recognized in the medical literature. For studies of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA), evidence of temporal trends is growing and the importance of assessing and reporting them has been highlighted in recent guidelines on postmarket surveillance in several jurisdictions. In this study, we evaluate the prevalence and patterns of time trends using a larger and more up-to-date set of DTA systematic reviews than has previously been examined, from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Study Design and SettingCumulative meta-analysis was conducted on bivariate random effects meta-analysis estimates of sensitivity and specificity, after ranking studies by publication date. Trends for all studies were assessed graphically using plots of summary estimates by study rank, and using receiver operating characteristic plots of sensitivity vs specificity. Linear trends were also described using weighted linear regression with autocorrelated errors of summary estimates against study rank. Various patterns of nonlinear trends were characterized descriptively. ResultsThe analysis included 46 reviews (92 meta-analyses) conducted between 2017 and 2022. The total number of studies within all reviews was 1486, with a median (IQR) 7134 (2782–16,406) participants per review. Reviews had a median (IQR) time span of 19 (15-25) publication years. Time trends in at least 1 DTA measure were observed in 40 (87%) reviews, and statistically significant linear trends in 32 (70%) reviews. Nonlinear time trends were observed in 14 (30%) reviews. There was no evidence for a trend in either DTA measure in 6 (13%) reviews. ConclusionThe study contributes evidence on the variety in patterns of linear and nonlinear temporal DTA trends which has not previously been described. We recommended researchers check statistical assumptions of trend analysis methods, eg, using graphical methods. Further research into potential reasons for time trends could contribute to the robustness of future meta-analyses.
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