Evidence-based narratives in European research programming

Philipp Schepelmann,Linda Krummenauer,Martin Drews,Karoline Augenstein,Susanne Fischer,Ton Bastein,Jürgen Kropp

doi:10.1186/s40309-021-00175-2

Abstract

The article introduces and exemplifies the approach of evidence-based narratives (EBN). The methodology is a product of co-design between policy-making and science, generating robust intelligence for evidence-based policy-making in the Directorate General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission (DG RTD) under the condition of high uncertainty and fragmented evidence. The EBN transdisciplinary approach tackles practical problems of future-oriented policy-making, in this case in the area of programming for research and innovation addressing the Grand Societal Challenge related to climate change and natural resources. Between 2013 and 2018, the EU-funded RECREATE project developed 20 EBNs in a co-development process between scientists and policy-makers. All EBNs are supported with evidence about the underlying innovation system applying the technological innovation systems (TIS) framework. Each TIS analysis features the innovation, its current state of market diffusion and a description of the innovation investment case. Indicators include potential future market sizes, effects on employment and environmental and social benefits. Based on the innovation and TIS function analyses, the EBNs offer policy recommendations. The article ends with a critical discussion of the EBN approach.

Highlights

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.1When dealing with future innovations, forwardlooking research as well as policy-makers face a dilemma, for it is the nature of both, the future and innovations, to represent uncharted territory
evidence-based narratives (EBN) deal on the basis of relatively few data with future guidance in instable globally connected systems subject to a potentially infinite number of influencing factors
As they contain high degrees of uncertainty and assumptions, the construction of EBNs is based on an interdisciplinary theoretical approach: the RECREATE researchers followed conclusions of cognitive science for decision-making under the condition of uncertainty aiming at simple ‘rules of thumb’

Summary

Introduction

When dealing with future innovations, forwardlooking research as well as policy-makers face a dilemma, for it is the nature of both, the future and innovations, to represent uncharted territory. The research of this article was originally organized as part of the ‘REsearch network for forward looking activities and assessment of research and innovation prospects in the fields of Climate, Resource Efficiency and raw mATErials’ (RECREATE) funded under the 7th EU framework programme for research, technological development and demonstration (FP7). RECREATE was a coordination action with the mandate to collect and analyse information about medium- and long-term research and innovation trends and prospects. The aim of RECREATE was to support the European Commission to create a research agenda for the Horizon 2020 framework programme of the European Union with a focus on climate change, raw materials and resource efficiency.

Results

Discussion

Conclusion