Abstract

We formulate a sex-structured deterministic model to study the effects of varying HIV testing rates, condom use rates and ART adherence rates among Adolescent Girls and Young Women (AGYW) and, Adolescent Boys and Young Men (ABYM) populations in Kenya. Attitudes influencing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS control measures both positively and negatively were considered. Using the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) microdata we constructed our model, which we fitted to the UNAIDS-Kenya youth prevalence estimates to understand factors influencing Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. While highly efficacious combination control approach significantly reduces HIV/AIDS prevalence rates among the youth, the disease remains endemic provided infected unaware sexual interactions persist. Disproportional gender-wise attitudes towards HIV/AIDS control measures play a key role in reducing the Kenyan youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trends. The female youth HIV/AIDS prevalence trend seems to be directly linked to increased male infectivity with decreased female infectivity while the male youth prevalence trend seems to be directly associated with increased female infectivity and reduced male infectivity.

Highlights

  • Kenya’s HIV epidemic ranks fourth worldwide with its general population affected most alongside risk groups such as sex workers, people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men and the youth population [1, 2]

  • The 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) revealed a worrying trend of many infected male and female youth unaware of their HIV/AIDS status and this is consistent with the global trends [44, 63]

  • The social attitudes influencing HIV testing, condom use and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence efficacy cannot be downplayed as they play a critical role in either fueling the HIV/AIDS epidemic or curtailing its spread in this population group as evidenced by the model results

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Summary

Introduction

Kenya’s HIV epidemic ranks fourth worldwide with its general population affected most alongside risk groups such as sex workers, people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men and the youth population [1, 2]. Two decades of successful combination control measures such as HIV testing, public health education campaigns, condom usage, antiretroviral therapy (ART) among others has resulted in the country’s significant reduction of the HIV/AIDS prevalence from 10.5% in 1996 to 5.9% in 2015 [3]. Integral to the ongoing fight against HIV/AIDS in Kenya is the component of HIV Counseling and Testing (HCT) with the Government of Kenya and International Development Partners substantially increasing voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) services in the country [4]. Under the Adolescent Reproductive Health Development policy in the 2005-2015 Plan of Action the Government of Kenya sought to establish adolescent friendly voluntary counseling and testing services in a bid to improve and promote accessibility of youth friendly. Modeling HIV/AIDS dynamics among the Kenyan Youth the National Data Archive (KeNADA)

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