Evasion of CO 2 injected into the ocean in the context of CO 2 stabilization

Abstract

The eventual evasion of injected CO 2 to the atmosphere is one consideration when assessing deep-sea disposal of CO 2 as a potential response option to climate change concerns. Evasion estimated using an ocean carbon cycle model is compared to long-term trajectories for future CO 2 emissions, including illustrative cases leading to stabilization of CO 2 concentration at various levels. Modeled residence time for CO 2 injected into the deep ocean exceeds the 100-year time-scale usually considered in scenarios for future emissions, and the potential impacts of climate change. Illustrative cases leading monotonically to constant CO 2 concentration have been highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give guidance on possible timing of emission reductions that may be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at various levels. For stabilization cases considered, significant modeled evasion does not occur until long after CO 2 emissions have reached a maximum and begun to decline. Illustrative cases can also lead to a maximum in CO 2 concentration followed by a decline to slowly decreasing concentrations. In such cases, future injection of emissions into the deep ocean leads to lower maximum CO 2 concentration, with less effect on concentration later on in time.