Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

Abstract

An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference ( $$\Updelta Q$$ ) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, $$\Updelta Q$$ and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity ( $$\hbox{Q}_{a}$$ ) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and $$\hbox{Q}_{a}$$ -evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of $$15^{\circ}\hbox{S}$$ excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20–100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS simulation comply the distinct feature of the observed mean annual cycle of evaporation and precipitation, but with the additive systematic bias over most of the region. El Nino and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (NIOD) seems to have much better control over the interannual variability of evaporation in the CFS simulation, contrary to the observation where El Nino and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (PIOD) has the larger say. Both El Nino and PIOD (La Nina and NIOD) have the negative (positive) influence on the basin wide evaporation with the exception over a limited region and this relation holds for the twain. The seasonal (JJA and SON) locking of El Nino and PIOD to evaporation and precipitation is displayed by the north-south and east-west asymmetric correlation pattern respectively and this is much perspicuous in the observation as compared to the CFS. The conjoined influence of El Nino and PIOD on evaporation (precipitation) reveals the dominance of PIOD (PIOD + El Nino) response in case of both the observation as well as the CFS. This study will lead a way forward to rectify the ubiquitous cold SST bias in the CFS simulation and help in establishing the credibility of the CFS in terms of seasonal predictability.