Abstract
The development of renewable energy in Fujian province has entered a bottleneck period in recent years. Considering the impact of COVID-19, how to formulate the provincial energy development strategy based on the 14th Five-year Plan is an important issue that need to be addressed for Fujian. This paper constructs a provincial Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the cost of energy transition to renewable resources and tries to find a better pathway that integrated into account social efficiency and cost. The simulation results show that after the implementation of energy substitution, the actual electricity price will increase by about 1.6% and the electricity consumption in various sectors will also decrease, especially in the secondary industry. Overall, the marginal impact of energy substitution on the economy is significant.
Highlights
Under the impact of COVID-19, the global economy has been hit hard, and the uncertainty of the energy transition has further widened
Based on the characteristics of energy utilization in Fujian Province, this paper investigates the impact of different renewable energy substitutions on transition costs by conducting a provincial CGE model
This paper applies the provincial CGE model to analyze the cost of the energy transition to renewable resources, taking Fujian as an studying case
Summary
Under the impact of COVID-19, the global economy has been hit hard, and the uncertainty of the energy transition has further widened. Economic recovery needs to rely on cheaper traditional fossil energy and the pull force of energy-intensive industries. The antiglobalization caused by COVID-19 has made countries around the world pay more attention to energy supply security, which will bring about the renewable energy industry some new development opportunities. With a new round of industrial revolution, the contradiction between energy supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. The increasingly serious negative effects of fossil energy utilization on the environment and energy security have become a great challenge for world economic development (Wei et al, 2019). Increasing the proportion of renewable energy and transitioning to a low-carbon energy system has become the primary goals of all countries (Watari et al, 2019)
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