Evaluation of Western North Pacific Typhoon Track Forecasts in Global and Regional Models during the 2021 Typhoon Season

Abstract

The track forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during 2021 typhoon season with five global models and four regional models are evaluated here. The results show that the average direct position errors (DPEs) of the global and regional models are approximately 80, 150, 200, 300, and 400 km at 24 h, 48 h, 72 h, 96 h, and 120 h lead-times, respectively. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) achieved the best track forecast performance at each lead among the five global models. Among the four regional models, The China Meteorological Administration Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea (CMA-TRAMS) attained the smallest DPEs within a 72 h lead, while The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) achieved the best track forecast performance at 96 h and 120 h leads. Most of the models produced an obvious westward systematic bias on track forecast from a 24 h to a 120 h lead. Further correlation and cluster analyses indicate that initial TC intensity and size and environmental steering flow can be regarded as good predictors for TC DPEs. TCs with a stronger initial intensity, a bigger initial size, and a larger environmental steering flow in general attain a smaller DPE, and the improvements may go up to 36% at short lead-time.