Evaluation of uncertainty in antineutrino spectra normalization calculations for advanced nuclear reactor monitoring

Abstract

Antineutrino detection systems have been envisioned as an important aspect of safeguarding the next generation of nuclear reactors, especially considering designs utilizing exotic fuel cycles. Deployment of antineutrino detection systems for safeguarding applications is hindered by the uncertainties associated with the calculations required for antineutrino spectra measurements and predictions. The focus of this work is to assess the impact of system components on antineutrino spectra normalization uncertainties and their significance in reactor power monitoring sensitivity. The dominant limitation in antineutrino detection calculations is typically the uncertainty associated with a cosmogenic background. This limitation becomes more pronounced when signals are weak, although the issue is mitigated in larger reactors due to their stronger source strength. Additionally, antineutrino emission uncertainties vary with the isotopic composition of the reactor fuel. Unconventional fuel cycles, featuring less common fissioning isotopes, such as Pu-240, introduce larger antineutrino yield uncertainties. The findings from this study suggest that future research on safeguard-targeted antineutrino detection should prioritize background mitigation, particularly when background simulation is necessary. Advanced nuclear reactor designs have a major influence on background understanding and successful system implementation.