EVALUATION OF THE SOCIAL PREVENTION OF CRIME POLICY IN ACAPULCO THROUGH A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Abstract

This paper analyzes the results of the prevention policy implemented in the municipality of Acapulco, Guerrero, specifically those actions financed through the federal fund known as the National Crime Prevention Program (PRONAPRED), executed between 2013 and 2018 in five geographical areas of the municipality with a high incidence of violence and crime. The aim of the program was to improve citizen security by reducing crime risk factors from the social, community, situational and psychosocial domain. This research uses a quasi-experimental design, defining two control geographical areas with socioeconomic and criminal environment equivalent to the intervened areas, which serve as a counterfactual to contrast indicators of citizen security and risk factors, with data from a survey applied to a representative sample (n=1,505). The results reveal that the incidence of crime and fear of crime in the intervened areas is lower than in the control areas, although the perceived insecurity is similar; besides, there is no evidence of a statistically significant improvement in the prevalence of most risk factors. This study concludes that the actions implemented in Acapulco with federal funds from PRONAPRED failed to influence crime risk factors and, therefore, any observable improvement in citizen security of the intervened areas cannot be attributed to that program.