Abstract
This study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions.
Highlights
African swine fever (ASF) is caused by the infection with a complex and large DNA virus (ASFV) of the Asfarviridae family (Salas, 1999; Dixon et al, 2005)
Notice that the ASF eradication program in Sardinia is similar to other ASF eradication programs conducted, for example, in countries such as Spain or Portugal, in those two countries ASF has been successfully eradicated
Selection of risk factors was validated during an expert opinion elicitation conducted on May 20th, 2010 in Oristano, Sardinia, in which more than 25 local veterinary authorities involved in the current ASF control and eradication program were asked to identify the main risk factors for ASF occurrence in the island
Summary
African swine fever (ASF) is caused by the infection with a complex and large DNA virus (ASFV) of the Asfarviridae family (Salas, 1999; Dixon et al, 2005). Difficulty to control ASF and the economic impact of the disease are consequence of a multiplicity of factors, including the role played by soft ticks (Ornithodoros genus) on disease transmission, lack of an effective vaccine to prevent ASF infection, long persistence of ASF risk factors in Sardinia the virus in the environment and in pig products, presence of asymptomatic and carrier animals, and severe restrictions to the international trade of pigs and their products imposed to regions in which the disease is known or suspected to be present (Sánchez-Vizcaíno et al, 2012). ASF has been eradicated from the Americas and Western Europe, with the exception of the Mediterranean island of Sardinia, where the disease has been endemic since 1978. A rigorous European Union (EU)-supported ASFV eradication program has been in place in Sardinia since 1993 Notice that the ASF eradication program in Sardinia is similar to other ASF eradication programs conducted, for example, in countries such as Spain or Portugal, in those two countries ASF has been successfully eradicated
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