Abstract
Drought and uneven distribution of precipitation during stages of crop growth exert a severe reduction on crop yield. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the impact of drought on crop yields. In this study, data from a two-year (2016 and 2017) field experiment were used to calibrate and evaluate the parameters of the Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. The evaluation model was then employed to analyze the impact of potential drought on the yield of summer maize (Zea mays L.) over different growth stages for 46 years (1970–2015). The simulated summer maize flowering and harvest date differed by three and one days of the observed in 2017. The d-index value and the normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of the simulated and measured values were 0.90 and 3.72%, 0.95 and 10.21%, and 0.92 and 13.12%, for summer maize yield, soil water content, and leaf area index, respectively. This indicates that the parameters of the DSSAT model were extremely reliable and that the simulation results were better. The yield reduction of summer maize was concentrated within the range of 0–40% from 1970 to 2015, and the two-stage yield reduction was higher than the one-stage yield reduction. The highest probability of yield reduction occurs if drought occurs during jointing and heading stages. Irrigation is therefore recommended during jointing stage or heading stage. If local irrigation conditions permit, irrigation can be carried out both at the jointing and heading stages. This study provides a theoretical basis for drought resistance management and scientific irrigation of summer maize in the western Guanzhong plain.
Highlights
The impact of climate change on crop growth and yield has become a focal topic in numerous studies [1,2,3,4]
The aims of this study were as follows: (1) to verify the applicability of the Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model in simulating the process of summer maize growth in the western Guanzhong plain; (2) to utilize the DSSAT model to simulate the various characteristics of yield reduction in different time series and growth stages of summer maize; (3) and to analyze the probability of drought occurring in different growth stages of summer maize as well as provide a reference for risk assessment and countermeasures with respect to summer maize drought loss in the western Guanzhong plain
The simulated and measured values of summer maize yield, phenology, leaf area index, and soil moisture are in good agreement
Summary
The impact of climate change on crop growth and yield has become a focal topic in numerous studies [1,2,3,4]. As an extreme climatic event, drought severely affects global crop growth and food production [5,6] and poses major challenges to the environment [7,8,9]. Government managers need scientific information to formulate effective drought disaster risk management measures to sustain the global population and ensure food security. Various factors such as climate, crop and soil characteristics, and human activities contribute to the severity of agricultural drought. The impact of the drought is affected by the degree and duration of reduced precipitation, soil moisture gradient, plant variety, and developmental stages [10,11].
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