Evaluation of the possibility of forecasting the displacements of the Solina Dam based on observation of the feeler gauges

Abstract

These studies are the continuation of previously conducted researches based on displacements of the Solina Dam. To support the monitoring of the dam, the EDF model were used. This model determines the dependence between displacements observed on the elements of the dam and the level of the upper water, cyclicality of temperatures and the impact of time. The use of model, in both the imaging of displacements of the Solina Dam and forecasts made for the benchmarks located on the crest of the dam, gave satisfactory results, therefore further analysis were undertaken. Displacement forecasting was made based on data from feeler gauges located at the pillars, retaining walls and four galleries. Analysis based on 4 different forecasting periods enabled for the conclusion that to obtain reliable forecasts, measurement data based on 10 years of operation with frequency of 1 per month is required. The use of such a comprehensive database allowed for the achievement of full compliance between modelled values and observed displacements within the established confidence intervals.