Evaluation of the neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in osteosarcoma using the MRI DWI-based machine learning radiomics nomogram.

Abstract

To evaluate the value of a nomogram combined MRI Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI) and clinical features to predict the treatment response of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with osteosarcoma. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 209 osteosarcoma patients admitted into two bone cancer treatment centers (133 males, 76females; mean age 16.31 ± 11.42 years) from January 2016 to January 2022. Patients were classified as pathological good responders (pGRs) if postoperative histopathological examination revealed ≥90% tumor necrosis, and non-pGRs if <90%. Their clinical features were subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis, and features with statistically significance were utilized to construct a clinical signature using machine learning algorithms. Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values pre-NAC (ADC 0) and post two chemotherapy cycles (ADC 1) were recorded. Regions of interest (ROIs) were delineated from pre-treatment DWI images (b=1000 s/mm²) for radiomic features extraction. Variance thresholding, SelectKBest, and LASSO regression were used to select features with strong relevance, and three machine learning models (Logistic Regression, RandomForest and XGBoost) were used to construct radiomics signatures for predicting treatment response. Finally, the clinical and radiomics signatures were integrated to establish a comprehensive nomogram model. Predictive performance was assessed using ROC curve analysis, with model clinical utility appraised through AUC and decision curve analysis (DCA). Of the 209patients, 51 (24.4%) were pGRs, while 158 (75.6%) were non-pGRs. No significant ADC1 difference was observed between groups (P>0.05), but pGRs had a higher ADC 0 (P<0.01). ROC analysis indicated an AUC of 0.681 (95% CI: 0.482-0.862) for ADC 0 at the threshold of ≥1.37×10-3 mm²/s, achieving 74.7% sensitivity and 75.7% specificity. The clinical and radiomics models reached AUCs of 0.669 (95% CI: 0.401-0.826) and 0.768 (95% CI: 0.681-0.922) respectively in the test set. The combined nomogram displayed superior discrimination with an AUC of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.668-0.951) and 75.8% accuracy. The DCA suggested the clinical utility of the nomogram. The nomogram based on combined radiomics and clinical features outperformed standalone clinical or radiomics model, offering enhanced accuracy in evaluating NAC response in osteosarcoma. It held significant promise for clinical applications.