Evaluation of the Kinetics of Pancreatic Stone Protein as a Predictor of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia.

Abstract

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a severe condition. Early and adequate antibiotic treatment is the most important strategy for improving prognosis. Pancreatic Stone Protein (PSP) has been described as a biomarker that increases values 3-4 days before the clinical diagnosis of nosocomial sepsis in different clinical settings. We hypothesized that serial measures of PSP and its kinetics allow for an early diagnosis of VAP. The BioVAP study was a prospective observational study designed to evaluate the role of biomarker dynamics in the diagnosis of VAP. To determine the association between repeatedly measured PSP and the risk of VAP, we used joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data. Of 209 patients, 43 (20.6%) patients developed VAP, with a median time of 4 days. Multivariate joint models with PSP, CRP, and PCT did not show an association between biomarkers and VAP for the daily absolute value, with a hazard ratio (HR) for PSP of 1.01 (95% credible interval: 0.97 to 1.05), for CRP of 1.00 (0.83 to 1.22), and for PCT of 0.95 (0.82 to 1.08). The daily change of biomarkers provided similar results, with an HR for PSP of 1.15 (0.94 to 1.41), for CRP of 0.76 (0.35 to 1.58), and for PCT of 0.77 (0.40 to 1.45). Neither absolute PSP values nor PSP kinetics alone nor in combination with other biomarkers were useful in improving the prediction diagnosis accuracy in patients with VAP. Registered retrospectively on August 3rd, 2012. NCT02078999.