Evaluation of the Impact of Maternity Capital in Russian Regions

Abstract

Effectiveness of measures of pronatalist policy, in particular, maternity capital, in Russia and its regions depends on the estimators of their recent impact. The article considers approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of the most significant measure of stimulating fertility in Russia and its regions – the maternal capital program, based on methods of comparative analysis and modelling of patterns of fertility rates by birth order from 1999 to 2006 – before the introduction of the maternal capital program, and during the periods of its state and regional versions – after 2007 and 2012, respectively. During the study the set of factors, that characterize the conditions of life in the country during these periods, were taken into account, which have an impact on the fertility rate, such as: the standard of living, social tension, etc. An initial data on the levels of age-related fertility rates of all, first, second, third and subsequent children in 39 regions of Russia was gathered from the Russian School of Economics. Data, reflecting the costs of maternal capital programs, living conditions in the country and its regions, was gathered from Rosstat, as well as the results of population surveys on the reasons for making decisions about the birth of a child, and other resources were used. The results, presented in the article, indicate, that the state program of maternal capital has more influence on the increase in the fertility rate of second children, while regional programs – affected on the fertility rate of third and subsequent children. There were two groups of regions determined, that differ in the response of their population’s demographic behavior to state and regional maternal capital programs in the current conditions of life. The obtained set of time series models with a variable structure, describing patterns in the order-related fertility rates in the regions of these groups in the considered time periods, indicate an increase in regional differentiation in terms of fertility.