Evaluation of the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: A time series study.

Dayane Caroliny Pereira Justino,Raffaele Serra,Fábia Barbosa de Andrade,Ketyllem Tayanne da Silva Costa,Thiffany Nayara Bento de Morais

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0256169

Dayane Caroliny Pereira Justino, Raffaele Serra

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0256169

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Journal: PloS one	Publication Date: Aug 12, 2021
Citations: 3	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Abstract

The World Health Organization declared, at the end of 2019, a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus that causes Coronavirus Disease—COVID-19. Currently, Brazil has become the epicenter of the disease, registering approximately 345 thousand deaths. Thus, the study has scientific relevance in health surveillance as it identifies, quantifies and monitors the main behavioral patterns of the mortality rate due to COVID-19, in Brazil and in their respective regions. In this context, the study aims to assess the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: a time series study, referring to the year 2020. This is an ecological time series study, constructed using secondary data. The research was carried out in Brazil, having COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable that occurred between the 12th and 53rd Epidemiological Week of 2020. The independent variable will be the epidemiological weeks. The data on deaths by COVID-19 were extracted in February 2021, on the Civil Registry Transparency Portal. The cleaning of the database and the information were treated in the Microsoft Excel® Software and, for statistical analysis, the JoinPoint software, version 4.7.0.0 was used. It was observed that Brazil presents an upward curve between the 12th and 19th SE, when it reaches saturation at the peak of mortality, which remains until the 35th SE and, subsequently, a downward curve was identified until the 47th SE, period in the which curve turns back up.

Highlights

On March 11, 2021, the World Health Organization—WHO (2021) declared a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus that originated in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, at the end of 2020, and that causes Coronavirus Disease—COVID-19
This behavior is similar in the Northeast and Southeast regions, while in the Midwest and South, the significance is shown later, whereas the North region presents earlier statistical significance. It exhibits significant Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) both in Brazil and in the regions, with the North being the region with the greatest inconsistency in mortality and the Southeast being the most stable region, in addition, it was observed that there was a pattern in the occurrence of jumps in the 47th epidemiological week
In the first part, which concerns the evolution of the mortality rate in Brazil, there was a drastic increase in the mortality rate due to COVID-19 in the period between the 12th to the 19th SE

Summary

Introduction

On March 11, 2021, the World Health Organization—WHO (2021) declared a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus that originated in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, at the end of 2020, and that causes Coronavirus Disease—COVID-19. The emerging virus has a respiratory character and can cause mild symptoms or worsen for critical conditions, with massive alveolar damage and respiratory failure [1,2,3]. The pandemic has advanced rapidly, reaching about 192 countries. 2,694,915 deaths have been recorded by COVID-19.

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