Abstract
Considering the risks related to energy security and the challenges posed by climate change, this work presents a methodology to investigate energy alternatives to promote an adequate energy transition. Such methodology was applied to a case study, modelling the energy system of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais to subsidize an energy transition with a view to expanding renewable energies and promoting energy efficiency at the state and municipal levels, as well as combating climate change. Projections, in the 2030-2050 horizon, were made using the tool Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) to establish a model of energy transition policy for Minas Gerais State. The modelling considered key assumptions based on historical data of demographic and economic origin, which subsidized the elaboration of three scenarios, being a Reference Scenario (REF), a Moderate Energy Transition Scenario (ETM) that aims to contribute to the energy sector goals of the Brazilian Nationally-Determined Contributions – NDC, and an Advanced Energy Transition Scenario (ETA) that goes beyond of NDC's goals. The analysis has shown that current policies are not sufficient to promote the state transition to sustainable energy systems and that this process will depend on the energy policies initiated and implemented in the near future.
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