Evaluation of the effi ciency of Russia’s trade with the countries of the EU based on the use of regression analysis techniques and the import demand function

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of approaches to assessing the effectiveness of the country’s foreign trade. In the course of the study, the authors analyze the dynamics of Russia’s mutual trade with the countries of the European Union in 2007–2020. This time interval was chosen due to the alternation of relatively stable and crisis periods: relatively stable for Russia and the world, 2005–2007 became a time of steady growth in world energy prices, followed by the global crisis of 2008, the debt crisis in the EU 2010–2012, sanctions confrontation EU-RF starting in 2014 and finally the COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty of the presented approach lies in the method proposed by the authors for forecasting the dynamics of integral indicators of export and export volumes in terms of commodity for the following commodity groups: nuclear reactors, boilers, equipment and mechanical devices, plastics and plastic products, mineral fuel, oil and distillation products, rubber and rubber, as well as products from them and ferrous metals for the EU-RF pair. The following macroeconomic indicators were used as tools: GDP, inflation and unemployment, the dynamics of world prices for hydrocarbon energy carriers, as well as the possibility proposed by the authors to test the demand function for imported products, developed by the research team of the Institute for Applied Economic Research of the RANEPA under the President of the Russian Federation on the basis of the available foreign and Russian experience on this issue.