Abstract
Forthcoming climate changes, recognized by the international scientific community, are inducing a modification of the hydrological cycles with a direct impact on the piezometric regime of natural slopes and thus on their stability conditions. Particularly regarding active landslides in fine grained soils, the experience based on several well documented cases suggests an evident connection between landslide activity and rainfalls cumulated over some months. As a consequence, the observed change of the rainfall features should provoke variations on the kinematic features of such phenomena. Its role could be not negligible in a landslide risk assessment.Thanks to the availability of a considerable database related to the well documented Orvieto case, regarding precipitations and displacements of an active slide in clay, monitored since 1982, and to a climate projection occurring in the concerned area, provided by a reliable Regional Climate Model, the present paper gives a likely prediction of the long-term scenario of the landslide behavior. According to our results, local climate effects should be responsible of a slow decrease in the displacement rate.
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